For those who’d rather avoid the whole thing, I have a soothing and therapeutic column about urban gardening in the Ottawa Citizen.
Most people will never know how much work is involved in getting a nomination for a major political party but I can promise you there is a shit ton of paper. When a party has to drop a candidate, usually for unredeemable bozo eruptions, it’s a lot of waste. Not to mention embarrassment.
The second week of the campaign saw one Conservative candidate after another dumped like a bag of dog doo left in the yard since November, and a couple of Liberal ones, too. The case that got the most ink was the Liberal in Markham who had “joked” about something terribly unfunny that I don’t care to repeat — click on the link for details if you already don’t know them. Mark Carney defended his candidate for way too long until buddy resigned. And now the RCMP is looking into the matter. Not a good look at all.
The other noteworthy Liberal dumpee got turfed “after a video from 2009 resurfaced in which he praised terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah, while speaking at an anti-NATO protest outside Edmonton city hall.”
The Conservatives defenestred four candidates in two days over unacceptable social media posts and other offensive statements. I’m too exhausted to go into the details, some of which weren’t even made public. At least the Tories were faster than the Liberals in jettisoning their bozos. I don’t remember so many of them in a single campaign but what can you do? The Conservatives spent two years demanding an election. Can’t expect them to be ready for one...
What took up a lot of air this week is Donald Trump’s penguins and related liberation news. My favourite moment was CBC anchor Adrienne Arsenault cutting off the president mid-ramble to bring our attention back to panelists in-studio to try and make sense of how, or whether, Canada would be affected by the new round of tariffs. Never in the history of droning had a president so deserved to be cut away from.
On paper, both the Conservatives and the Liberals agree on the need to respond forcefully and to strengthen Canada’s economy. They differ a little bit on some details but essentially they share the same goal. The Conservatives are hobbled by how close most people perceive Poilievre to be from the Trumpian style and method. The news this week that Convoy organizers Chris Barber and Tamara Lich had been found guilty of mischief for their role in the 2022 occupation is also reminding everyone that Poilievre is the only party leader (if you exclude Maxime Bernier, as you should) to have been vocally and donut-ly in support of the truckers.
The big question is who will Canadians trust to be the best prime minister to lead the fight in defence of Canada. And so far the polls are showing a fairly clear picture. You can look at them as well as I can, and you’ll see the same thing I’m seeing. The Conservatives continue to tank while the Liberals enjoy a not-insignificant lead. A lot can happen in three weeks and nobody should take those numbers for granted — on either side. There are debates ahead and all kinds of potential for change.
I look for big trends. If I’m the Liberals I’m thinking Carney needs to remain calm and in control, quietly efficient and prime ministerial in tone and approach. He also can’t fuck up in any way. They’ll all be coming at him in the next few weeks, throwing everything to make him trip. He’s bound to stumble; I don’t think he’s Teflon Mark. The only question is, will those stumbles be enough to derail him, and I don’t have the answer to that.
One thing that’s not going to cause him to lose is his French. I have had it with anglos telling me and other French-speaking Québécois that Mark Carney’s French isn’t awesome. I know, OK? But it’s also not that bad. It’s at least as good as Stephen Harper’s was in 2006. I defended the Conservative leader’s French at the time, saying we could understand what he was saying through the ear bleeding. And Harper, to his credit, worked very hard to get better and his French steadily improved over the years. Carney is already making progress. Yes, he makes mistakes. And for sure there are francophones who may vote for someone else because of that. I argue they’re a very small minority.
On the other side, I see two big trends that are damaging to the Conservatives. One is the heavy-handed treatment of the media, which is a bigger issue for journalists than it is for the average person. The other is a completely different matter: Women as a rule don’t like Poilievre.
Pollster Allan Gregg had a (paywalled) piece in the Toronto Star Friday that included this bit:
… among 35 to 54 year old males, the Conservatives have a commanding lead of 15 points over the Liberals — 49 per cent to 34 per cent. Among women the Liberals lead by 19 points overall — 51 per cent to 32 per cent — which rises to 23 points among 18-34 year old females and even higher — to 27 points — among females over the age of 55 years.
Poilievre was never especially popular among women, for a variety of reasons. This week he made a comment about biological clocks that got stuck in many craws, including mine. It wasn’t the first time he’d used that expression either. The issue he’s talking about is real; it’s hard for couples who want to have children to figure out how on earth they’ll be able to afford a home to raise kids in before they’re too old to have kids. I’m totally on board with talking about that issue — actually, I’d rather we fixed it by building hundreds of thousands of new affordable homes last week.
When you talk about biological clocks you’re necessarily talking about a woman’s reproductive organs since we all know sperm-producing humans can reproduce well into their 70s. It’s creepy to talk about biological clocks. No politician should do it, ever. They can simply talk about couples who want to have children in their 20s or 30s and discuss how they’ll contribute to making life more affordable.
For some reason Pierre Poilievre seems unable or unwilling to make this very small change in his rhetoric and you don’t need to be a feminist to notice and be repulsed by that. I will continue to watch the polls and especially his negatives among women this coming week. I would be surprised to see a change in Poilievre’s favour.
