François Legault is leaving. Now what?

This is the hot take on Quebec politics you didn’t think you needed. Premier François Legault, facing the harsh reality that his party would likely win zero seats in the fall election, decided to abandon ship do the right thing and leave early enough to allow someone else to try and salvage some bits of furniture.

This must be very hard, and not just because Legault is the Coalition Avenir Québec, having co-founded it in 2011 after years in the Parti Québécois including stints as minister (health and education). For a very long time, Legault represented a lot of Quebecers. Sort of conservative economically, mostly liberal-ish on social issues, nationalist but not necessarily separatist, and proud as all hell of Quebec’s culture. He stands out among politicians of all stripes for just how much he enjoys reading books. As someone who writes books, I appreciate that.

He was so in touch with the Average Quebecer that I once compared him to Maurice Duplessis. He performed well during the pandemic. But somewhere along the way, in the years since, he lost touch. And Quebecers soured on him. Survey after survey in the last year predicted the annihilation of his party, to the benefit of the Parti Quebecois.

So now… what? The Liberal Party is once again having a leadership race after Pablo Rodriguez imploded, and while it has a lot of hard-working people in it, its odds of making a comeback in the fall are… minimal. The PQ is doing well in the polls but as Pierre Poilievre could tell them, there’s a difference between being popular relative to an unpopular head of government and being popular on your own when people stare at you and wonder what kind of leader you’d make.

The PQ makes no secret of wanting another separation referendum. Whether that’s something Quebecers actually want, especially in the current context with a wildly unpredictable and volatile US President, remains to be seen. My money is on “no thanks.” If the PQ campaigns on a referendum, I am not convinced it’ll win, especially if the CAQ rallies under a different leader. There’s also the Conservative Party that may create enough confusion in a few ridings to make a mess of the PQ’s chances.

There are too many balls in the air at the moment to see where things are headed. But I would bank on stability, no referendum, a fair amount of populism, not too much austerity, and continued support for protecting Quebec’s identity and culture.

In short, steady-ish as she goes.